NFL Math Model
Friday, October 22, 2010
Week 7 Picks
Contest
KC -7
MIN +2.5
OAK +7
ARI +5.5
STL +2.5
MM
MIN + 2.5
KC -9
SEA -7
NE +2.5
NO -12.5
Totals
Week 7
Contest- 3-2
MM Picks- 3-2
Year
Contest- 16-18-1
MM Picks- 21-14
Week 7 Trends
TRENDS
ATL -3.5 CIN
Interconference home favorites by 3.5 range cover 16/24
Home teams in their pre-bye week and 3.5 favorites are 4/19
Road teams coming off a bye and underdogs by 3.5 are 10/12
2010: Home Teams Favored under 7 in interconference games are 2/11
Slight Edge: CIN
TB -3 STL
Home team in conference games where the spread is 3 is 35/75
Home teams off a home division underdog loss + no cover now favored by 3 are 2/5
Neutral
KC -9 JAC
Road teams that lost a home division game as an underdog and didnt cover and are underdogs by 8-10 in a conference game are 2/10
Edge: KC
MIA +3 PIT
Road teams that were home favorites and covered a diviosn game, now favorites by 3are 5/7
In conference games, road favorites by 7 and less are 2/14
Road teams that previously won by 17+ now favorites by 3 are 8/11
Neutral
NO -12.5 CLE
Home teams that won and covered a road division game now favored by 9+ in non-division games are 8/8
Home teams that previously won by 17+ now favored at home by 10.5-13.5 in an interconference games are 2/6
Slight Edge: NO
BAL -12.5 BUF
Home teams favored by 12.5 in a conference game are 1/5
Home teams pre-bye over 7 are 6/6
Neutral
SEA -7 ARI
Away teams coming off a bye and underdogs by 6-7 are 1/5
Slight Edge: SEA
SD -2.5 NE
Home teams as favorites by 2.5 in conference games are 14/32
Home teams as favorites by 3 or less in a conference game and as a west coast team hosting an east coast team are 1/6
Slight Edge: NE
GB -2.5 MIN
Home teams favored by 1-3 on Sunday Night are 1/15
Division home teams are 1/7
Edge- MIN
RECAP:
Edge-
MIN + 2.5
KC -9
Slight Edge
CIN +3.5
NE +2.5
NO -12.5
--
SEA -7
Monday, October 18, 2010
Week 6 Picks
Contest
ATL
NYG
SEA
IND
TEN
MATH MODEL
KC +4.5
NYG -10
GB -3
SF -7.5
TEN -3
Totals
Week 6
Contest- 2-2-1
MM Picks- 3-2
Year
Contest- 13-16-1
MM Picks- 18-12
Sunday, October 10, 2010
Week 5 Picks
Contest Picks
CLE
GB
CIN
IND
DEN
MM Picks
IND -7
CIN -6.5
CHI +2.5
GB -2.5
PHI +3
Totals
Week 5
Contest- 1-4
MM Picks- 3-2
Year
Contest- 11-14
MM Picks- 15-10
Monday, October 4, 2010
Week 4 Picks
Contest:
NYG
BUF
JAC
DET
SF
MM
NYG
PIT
CAR
DET
BUF
Totals
Week 4
Contest- 4-1
MM Picks- 3-2
Year
Contest- 10-10
MM Picks- 12-8
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Week 3 Picks
For the contest-
CLE +10.5
CAR +3.5
ATL +4
NYJ +2.5
GB -3
On Sunday-
CLE +12
CAR +3.5
PHI -2
NYJ +1
GB -3
Totals
Week 3
Contest- 3-2
MM Picks- 3-2
Total Year
Contest- 6-9
MM Picks- 9-6
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Week 2
Contest Picks:
NO -5.5
DEN -3.5
WAS +2.5
OAK -3.5
NYG +5
As of Sunday Morning, here are the revised MM picks:
IND -4
NO -5
TB +4
DEN -3.5
WAS -2.5
Contest: 1-4
MM- 3-2
Season
Contest 3-7
MM Picks 6-4
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