Week 7 Picks

Contest

KC -7
MIN +2.5
OAK +7
ARI +5.5
STL +2.5


MM
MIN + 2.5
KC -9
SEA -7NE +2.5
NO -12.5

Totals  

Week 7

Contest- 3-2

MM Picks- 3-2

Year

Contest- 16-18-1

MM Picks- 21-14

Week 7 Trends

TRENDS

ATL -3.5 CIN

• Interconference home favorites by 3.5 range cover 16/24
• Home teams in their pre-bye week and 3.5 favorites are 4/19
• Road teams coming off a bye and underdogs by 3.5 are 10/12
• 2010: Home Teams Favored under 7 in interconference games are 2/11

Slight Edge: CIN

TB -3 STL

• Home team in conference games where the spread is 3 is 35/75
• Home teams off a home division underdog loss + no cover now favored by 3 are 2/5

Neutral


KC -9 JAC

• Road teams that lost a home division game as an underdog and didnt cover and are underdogs by 8-10 in a conference game are 2/10

Edge: KC

MIA +3 PIT

• Road teams that were home favorites and covered a diviosn game, now favorites by 3are 5/7
• In conference games, road favorites by 7 and less are 2/14
• Road teams that previously won by 17+  now favorites by 3 are 8/11

Neutral

NO -12.5 CLE

• Home teams that won and covered a road division game now favored by 9+ in non-division games are 8/8
• Home teams that previously won by 17+ now favored at home by 10.5-13.5 in an interconference games are 2/6

Slight Edge: NO

BAL -12.5 BUF

• Home teams favored by 12.5 in a conference game are 1/5
• Home teams pre-bye over 7 are 6/6

Neutral

SEA -7 ARI

• Away teams coming off a bye and underdogs by 6-7 are 1/5

Slight Edge: SEA

SD -2.5 NE

• Home teams as favorites by 2.5 in conference games are 14/32
• Home teams as favorites by 3 or less in a conference game and as a west coast team hosting an east coast team are 1/6

Slight Edge: NE

GB -2.5 MIN

• Home teams favored by 1-3 on Sunday Night are 1/15
• Division home teams are 1/7

Edge- MIN


RECAP:

Edge-
MIN + 2.5
KC -9

Slight Edge
CIN +3.5
NE +2.5
NO -12.5
--
SEA -7

Week 6 Picks

Contest

1. ATL
2. NYG
3. SEA
4. IND
5. TEN

MATH MODEL

1. KC +4.5
2. NYG -10
3. GB -3
4. SF -7.5
5. TEN -3

Totals  

Week 6

Contest- 2-2-1

MM Picks- 3-2

Year

Contest- 13-16-1

MM Picks- 18-12

Week 5 Picks

Contest Picks

1. CLE
2. GB
3. CIN
4. IND
5. DEN

MM Picks

1. IND -7
2. CIN -6.5
3. CHI +2.5
4. GB -2.5
5. PHI +3

Totals  

Week 5

Contest- 1-4

MM Picks- 3-2

Year

Contest- 11-14

MM Picks- 15-10

Week 4 Picks

Contest:

1. NYG
2. BUF
3. JAC
4. DET
5. SF

MM

1. NYG
2. PIT
3. CAR
4. DET
5. BUF

Totals  

Week 4

Contest- 4-1

MM Picks- 3-2

Year

Contest- 10-10

MM Picks- 12-8

Week 3 Picks

For the contest-

1. CLE +10.5
2. CAR +3.5
3. ATL +4
4. NYJ +2.5
5. GB -3

On Sunday-

1. CLE +12
2. CAR +3.5
3. PHI -2
4. NYJ +1
5. GB -3

Totals  

Week 3

Contest- 3-2

MM Picks- 3-2

Total Year

Contest- 6-9

MM Picks- 9-6

Week 2

Contest Picks:

1. NO -5.5
2. DEN -3.5
3. WAS +2.5
4. OAK -3.5
5. NYG +5

As of Sunday Morning, here are the revised MM picks:

1. IND -4
2. NO -5
3. TB +4
4. DEN -3.5
5. WAS -2.5

Contest: 1-4
MM- 3-2

Season


Contest 3-7
MM Picks 6-4 

Week 1

The MM Picks-

NO -4.5
DET + 6.5
DAL -3.5
SD -4.5
NYG -5.5

*Note that with line changes these were not my picks in the contest.  In the contest I had:


NO -5.5
DET + 6.5

DAL -3.5

SD -4.5

NYG -7




---


Results


MM Picks- 3-2
Contest Picks 2-3

Season Preview

Here are the O/U numbers that my Math Model predicts for each team in the 2010 season.  (Vegas season totals from sportsbetting.com)

Team	ME	Vegas	Diff
ARI	8.29	7.5	0.79
ATL	9.39	9.5	-0.11
BAL	10.64	10	0.64
BUF	4.52	5	-0.48
CAR	6.55	7.5	-0.95
CHI	6.06	8	-1.94
CIN	8.2	8	0.2
CLE	5.06	5.5	-0.44
DAL	11.14	10	1.14
DEN	6.59	7.5	-0.91
DET	5.54	5	0.54
GB	10.21	10	0.21
HOU	7.66	8.5	-0.84
IND	11.83	11	0.83
JAC	6.38	6.5	-0.12
KC	5.71	7	-1.29
MIA	7.42	8.5	-1.08
MIN	10.99	9.5	1.49
NE	10.11	9.5	0.61
NO	11.47	10.5	0.97
NYG	8.17	8.5	-0.33
NYJ	10.06	9.5	0.56
OAK	5.55	6.5	-0.95
PHI	7.82	8.5	-0.68
PIT	8.91	8.5	0.41
SD	12.01	10.5	1.51
SEA	7.39	7.5	-0.11
SF	7.33	8.5	-1.17
STL	4.95	5	-0.05
TB	5.42	6	-0.58
TEN	8.01	8.5	-0.49
WAS	6.39	8	-1.61

My biggest overachievers are: SD, DAL, MIN, NO IND

My biggest underachievers are: CHI, WAS, KC, SF, MIA

Welcome!

This blog will initially be about my foray into the NFL gambling world, using my proprietary Math Model.

I have entered the Hilton SuperContest for the 2010 season and will be keeping track of my picks on this site.  I will be picking 5 games per week for each of the 17 NFL weeks for a total of 85 games.

My goal is to win the contest, and to pick at least 65% of the games correctly. (That is at least 55 out of 85).

I will be posting my Week 1 picks next week, so get ready!