Week 1

The MM Picks-

NO -4.5
DET + 6.5
DAL -3.5
SD -4.5
NYG -5.5

*Note that with line changes these were not my picks in the contest.  In the contest I had:


NO -5.5
DET + 6.5

DAL -3.5

SD -4.5

NYG -7




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Results


MM Picks- 3-2
Contest Picks 2-3

Season Preview

Here are the O/U numbers that my Math Model predicts for each team in the 2010 season.  (Vegas season totals from sportsbetting.com)

Team	ME	Vegas	Diff
ARI	8.29	7.5	0.79
ATL	9.39	9.5	-0.11
BAL	10.64	10	0.64
BUF	4.52	5	-0.48
CAR	6.55	7.5	-0.95
CHI	6.06	8	-1.94
CIN	8.2	8	0.2
CLE	5.06	5.5	-0.44
DAL	11.14	10	1.14
DEN	6.59	7.5	-0.91
DET	5.54	5	0.54
GB	10.21	10	0.21
HOU	7.66	8.5	-0.84
IND	11.83	11	0.83
JAC	6.38	6.5	-0.12
KC	5.71	7	-1.29
MIA	7.42	8.5	-1.08
MIN	10.99	9.5	1.49
NE	10.11	9.5	0.61
NO	11.47	10.5	0.97
NYG	8.17	8.5	-0.33
NYJ	10.06	9.5	0.56
OAK	5.55	6.5	-0.95
PHI	7.82	8.5	-0.68
PIT	8.91	8.5	0.41
SD	12.01	10.5	1.51
SEA	7.39	7.5	-0.11
SF	7.33	8.5	-1.17
STL	4.95	5	-0.05
TB	5.42	6	-0.58
TEN	8.01	8.5	-0.49
WAS	6.39	8	-1.61

My biggest overachievers are: SD, DAL, MIN, NO IND

My biggest underachievers are: CHI, WAS, KC, SF, MIA

Welcome!

This blog will initially be about my foray into the NFL gambling world, using my proprietary Math Model.

I have entered the Hilton SuperContest for the 2010 season and will be keeping track of my picks on this site.  I will be picking 5 games per week for each of the 17 NFL weeks for a total of 85 games.

My goal is to win the contest, and to pick at least 65% of the games correctly. (That is at least 55 out of 85).

I will be posting my Week 1 picks next week, so get ready!